USA and China have a trade deal, but China is facing economic trials
Dr. Bob Thiel aka COGwriter
(Pixabay photo)
The USA and China have a trade deal, but the Chinese are concerned that other deals may hurt it:
China Warns Countries Not To Strike Trade Agreements With Washington At Its Expense
29 June 2025
China has warned that it will take “firm, resolute countermeasures” if any country enters into tariff relief deals with the United States at the expense of Chinese interests.
The warning comes ahead of 9 July, when a 90-day tariff reprieve granted by the Trump administration is set to expire.
In a statement issued on Saturday (28 June) evening, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce said it firmly opposed any arrangements with the US that compromised China’s rights.
“Should such a situation arise, China will never accept it and will take firm, resolute countermeasures to defend its legitimate rights and interests,” the ministry stated, …
On Thursday, Trump stated that a trade deal had been signed with China, although no further details were made public.
The following day, China’s Ministry of Commerce confirmed that it would begin reviewing export applications for controlled items, with the US expected to lift some of its trade restrictions in return. https://swarajyamag.com/news-brief/with-indiaus-deal-on-the-horizon-china-warns-countries-not-to-strike-trade-agreements-with-washington-at-its-expense
Despite making a trade deal of some sort with the USA, China’s economy is vulnerable.
Internally, China has debt, reportedly overvalued real estate, plus lots of rules in place that also make it subject to major civil unrest.
Notice also the following:
China’s Economy Spirals With No End In Sight, Says Kyle Bass
June 28, 2025
China is grappling with the most severe economic crisis in its history, a downturn that the regime will not recover from, according to Kyle Bass, founder and chief investment officer of Hayman Capital Management.
“There is nothing that is going to bail China out of their economic spiral. They’re having a real estate crisis, a banking crisis, a youth unemployment crisis, and now they need to be worried about their current account,” Bass said …
Bass said U.S. tariffs and declining trade threaten China’s economic advantage, which is its trade surplus with the United States.
China’s exports to the United States plunged by 35 percent in May compared to a year earlier, according to Chinese customs data.
“China’s once bright spot is now in question,” Bass said. “I actually am surprised it’s not down more.”
China has also been hit hard by capital flight.
In 2024, Bass said, China experienced a massive outflow of both foreign direct investment (FDI) and portfolio investment totaling about $500 billion, pointing to the gap between its trade surplus of about $980 billion and its current account surplus of about $420 billion.
China is also facing unsustainable debts. When combining China’s sovereign debt and local government financing debt, Bass estimated that the country’s debt-to-GDP ratio should be roughly 350 percent, which he said is difficult to manage considering the various economic challenges. …
In February, the national unemployment rate reached 5.7 percent, the highest in two years, while the youth jobless rate topped 16.9 percent.
Adding to the concerns, consumer prices fell for a fourth consecutive month in May, while industrial profits decreased by 9.1 percent compared to a year earlier, underscoring deepening deflatory pressures in the world’s second-largest economy. https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/chinas-economy-spirals-no-end-sight-says-kyle-bass (Note: The ZeroHedge link is not live because I encountered computer-freezing issues three times I went to it.)
China’s economy on cusp of a deflationary death spiral
Deflation isn’t an abstract threat in China—it’s visible, statistical and spreading fast as goods made for export redirected to local markets
China is sliding deeper into economic weakness that is being worsened by its response to external shocks. …
Chinese authorities have been positioning the domestic market as a pressure-release valve for the manufacturing sector. But the influx of export-grade inventory is creating excess at home in a consumer environment that is already highly restrained.
This is accelerating a destructive process: prices are falling, and not because productivity is rising or technology is improving. They’re falling because companies are desperate to shift stock and survive.
Deflation isn’t an abstract threat in China anymore—it’s visible across the economy. After barely holding above zero for much of 2023 and 2024, consumer prices have now dropped for two straight months. …
The jobs market remains under pressure, with wage growth uneven. 05/05/25 https://asiatimes.com/2025/05/chinas-economy-on-cusp-of-a-deflationary-death-spiral/
While China has grown tremendously, economically, one of the things that most Westerners do not realize is that China has a system that prevents its citizens from agrarian areas from having the same rights as those in urban areas. It is called the hukou. Here is more information about that:
The hukou
Through a rigorous and rigid household registration system designed to control the movement of China’s 1.3 billion people, the central government classifies all its citizens as either city dwellers or rural peasants. The registration, also known in Chinese as hukou, determines not only a citizen’s residence but also what kind of social services individuals are eligible for…In Beijing, which has an estimated 5 million migrant workers, none of these people are allowed to obtain state-sponsored health care or schooling if their hukou is registered in their hometowns—which most likely it is. As a result, their children—many of whom are born in the Chinese capital—can only attend privately-run and unapproved schools. (Mong A, Gu B. In Beijing, 40,000 students stranded. MSNBC, August 19, 2011. http://behindthewall.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/08/19/7413538-in-beijing-40000-students-stranded?lite)What is hukou …
A hukou determines where your kids can go to school, where you can own a home, city or regions where you can access healthcare, find permanent jobs and receive loans. …
Historically, the hukou system and the danwei have formed the basis of social order allowing Beijing to control any labour strikes or protests by workers. …
The hukou system has allowed the Beijing government to control labour mobility in the vast network of industrial production hubs across major cities.
As foreign travel and work opportunities have become difficult since the pandemic started, there is growing frustration among the youth. …
The change in the hukou system is responding to the lack of jobs and growing frustration with Beijing’s zero-Covid policy. Even the foreign talent China has relied on to fill the skills gap continues to exit the megacities. Beijing isn’t depending on the return of foreign workers anymore, and instead, the strategy appears to be to boost growth at home through policy realignment.
The jobs crisis and flailing economic growth has Beijing worried. The Chinese cities now seem confident with the idea of permitting a demographic change within their territories.
The growing moment to change the hukou system has the potential to transform the social order in Chinese society, which will leave an impact on politics. 07/06/22 https://theprint.in/opinion/eye-on-china/growing-frustration-in-youth-has-the-chinese-govt-worried-it-sees-solution-in-hukou/1026134/
The hukou looks to be a factor in economic problems and social unrest in China.
For many reasons, China’s economy is vulnerable. And that seems to be the reason for its threats to other nations who will make deals with the United States.
Some items of possibly related interest may include:
China, Its Biblical Past and Future, Part 1: Genesis and Chinese Characters Where did the Chinese people come from? Japeth, Javan, Magog? Is there evidence that the Chinese peoples must have known about various accounts in the Book of Genesis up until their dispersion after the Tower of Babel? What do Chinese writings and characters help show? What about the Garden of Eden, Noah’s Flood, and the Tower of Babel? Here is a link to a version of this article in Spanish: ¿Prueban los caracteres chinos la exactitud de la Biblia? A related sermon is also available: China’s biblical past and prophetic actions.
China, Its Biblical Past and Future, Part 2: The Sabbath and Some of God’s Witness in China When did Christianity first come to China? What about the Apostle Thomas? Did Confucius say anything to get the Chinese to possibly consider Christianity? Is there early evidence that they observed the seventh day sabbath? What about the Ten Commandments? What type of Church of God witness has there been to China? What has been happening with China that ties it together with prophecies in Revelation? What about the 200 million man army and Armageddon? What about the Belt and Road Initiative and end time Babylon the Great? A related sermon is also available: China’s biblical past and prophetic actions. Watch also China’s Silk Road and Babylon the Great.
Asia in Prophecy What is Ahead for Asia? Who are the “Kings of the East”? What will happen to nearly all the Chinese, Russians, Indians, and others of Asia? China in prophecy, where? Who has the 200,000,000 man army related to Armageddon? Here is a link to a related sermon: Asia in Prophecy. Two YouTube video are Is China THE Threat to the United States of America? and China: A King of the East.
Lost Tribes and Prophecies: What will happen to Australia, the British Isles, Canada, Europe, New Zealand and the United States of America? Where did those people come from? Can you totally rely on DNA? Do you really know what will happen to Europe and the English-speaking peoples? What about the peoples of Africa, Asia, South America, and the islands? This free online book provides scriptural, scientific, historical references, and commentary to address those matters. Here are links to related sermons: Lost tribes, the Bible, and DNA; Lost tribes, prophecies, and identifications; 11 Tribes, 144,000, and Multitudes; Israel, Jeremiah, Tea Tephi, and British Royalty; Gentile European Beast; Royal Succession, Samaria, and Prophecies; Asia, Islands, Latin America, Africa, and Armageddon; When Will the End of the Age Come?; Rise of the Prophesied King of the North; Christian Persecution from the Beast; WWIII and the Coming New World Order; and Woes, WWIV, and the Good News of the Kingdom of God.